Key Uncertainties (Revised) in the Korean Higher Education Industry
POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Q: Will local governments gain more freedom and autonomy? A: Medium no.
Given the tendency of Korean political reforms to coincide with financial crises such as the IMF bailouts of 1997 public pressure may help to redefine democracy but only from a central leadership role and only perhaps if voter sentiment can be kindled to perceive candidates who are serious about putting local policies in the hands of local administrations. However the current administration has proven reform minded and one of the leading candidates for next President is described as dynamic and innovative.
Q: Will the topic of chaebol reforms again become the focus of political reforms?
A: Medium yes.
The recent conviction of Hyundai Motors Chairman Chung Mong Koo portends that 2007 truly is a period of change in the relationship between family managed corporations and implies a movement towards greater transparency not only to reduce the “Korean discount” for increased FDI but also to reorient local perspectives on the terms of stakeholder interests. However the conviction is under appeal thus the rap could become a slap and could prove political intransigence.
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES
Q: Will employment retraining gain an important position in the educational sector?
A: Medium yes.
Koreans spend more per capita upon educating their children than any other OECD nation. If the choice is made for them by the employment sector Koreans will naturally need to reskill and retrain. However if this comes at the expense of their children’s competitiveness they are more likely to sacrifice their own earning potentials for those of the next generation thus the trend adequately depicts reality in some ways to suggest that is already the case. There may be evidence to suggest a growing trend in mature students’ applications to university programs. Success or failure of retraining programs may depend upon duration, location, and cost factors.
Q: Will the US economy improve?
A: Medium yes.
Current Federal Reserve Board Chairman Dr. Ben S. Bernanke has yet to perhaps prove his skills on the swizzle stick of fiscal responsibilities to a global investor audience. While currency fluctuations do not appear to rely heavily upon speculators interests the overarching market forces at present suggest that US consumers might push for alternative fuels and thus minimize production costs over the next five years in terms of global oil consumption. However continued over-reliance on short-term consumer debt could perpetuate a great bursting of the real estate markets which would be incredibly devastating. However the globe’s most prolific monetary unit, of which there may be no accurate accounting of its actual total currency in circulation is also the globe’s most pernicious net debtor of loans in its own funds and as a most ravenous consumer of capital goods (thanks to Leontieff's Principle) the US economy continues to careen through the wilds of international balances of payments repeatedly disproving the collective theories of market economics and seemingly exempt from displaying any serious fiscal reforms-minded fuss. It is possible an economic belt-tightening event could be ongoing.
CULTURAL UNCERTAINTIES
Q: Will hallyu and Korean cultural exports continue to gain ground? A: Weak yes.
Asian experts suggest that the hallyu wave is set to reduce demand due to its own success.
Recommendations include greater development of foreign partners, and a long term perspective to creating global distribution channels with the prediction that, “If not, hallyu can last no longer than five years” (Park, C.A., 2005). Due to popularity regional costs for Korean cultural products have sky-rocketed. Perhaps the next great wave will originate in Mongolia (again). It remains to be seen whether or not the cultural industry will organize its global distribution prior to a new regional fad possibly taking its place.
Q: Will Korean nationalism continue to grow? A: Medium no.
It is felt that the youth of Korea due to high unemployment rates and a growing sense of national self-determinism contribute to a new paradigm understanding of post Korean War, post Cold War status quos in which North Korea is often perceived not as an aggressor or evil enemy but a pathetic victim of the politics of imperialist powers. However possible changes in demographics, technologies, and economic uncertainties along with the view that with age experience grows and with experience thus wisdom knows these proponents of anti-Americanism, anti-free trade and anti-foreign influences will overcome possible ignorance concerning the real issues surrounding the North which is the incredible costs inherent in any reunification strategies. However a similar trend took place post-war in Imperial Japan predicated by the trade barriers of the Great Depression. Korean nationalism could perceivably grow under conditions of severe curtailment of export growth due to the possibility of renewed global trade barriers.
DEMOGRAPHIC UNCERTAINTIES
Q: Will the Korean birth rate continue to decline? A: Medium yes.
A preference for male children is a common cultural trait among East Asians and Koreans are no exception. Thus it is a significant factor in demographics which requires further influence of government and civil organizations to stimulate population policymakers. Research indicates that, “child sex determination and sex-selective abortion were available and affordable to South Korean households as early as the late 1970s before the unbalanced sex ratio became widely recognized as a social problem” (Lee & Paik, 2005:19). It also represented a peak period in abortion rates of male and female fetuses. Noticeable over the last decade are mobile vans which patrol regional rural areas emblazoned with banners and bullhorns advertising “Vietnamese virgins” or the like from developing south-east Asian nations as suitable international marriage partners. The rural Korean agricultural population has also seen some of the most rapid and present declines in locally available women for marriage to bachelor farmers or low-skilled, low income single men. Such areas also provide some of the highest rates of aging in Gangwon and Cholla Provinces for example women once locally available have relocated to the cities to take advantage of increases in more competitive rates for employment and the higher earning potentials of suitable urban males as marriage partners. International marriages have increased from 1.2 % as of 1990 to 13.6% of national totals in 2005; foreign brides have represented only 0.2% and 9.9% of those statistics (Kim, J., 2007: 12) which provokes a claim that a, “continuing decline of fertility below the replacement rate since 1983 is accompanied by…changes in …various aspects of fertility including…delay in marriage and childbearing, an increase in…childlessness and (a) movement toward…gender equity at birth” (Ibid., 2007: 24). Additional externalities claim the cost of having a child in 2005 amounted to 124% of the rate of GDP per person in Korea and that this greatest impediment to increasing birth rates locally is a concern over cost absorption. At the same time, increasing immigration rates and tax rates would mitigate the costs to raising children especially if a platform for competition will positively affect perceived rankings in global living standards which many Koreans observe in evaluating the success of an export market focus. A shift in policy could take place which might prove quite innovative and creative despite a perception that Koreans are not particularly good at either.
Q: Will the proportion of older Korean workers continue to increase?
A: Medium yes.
Per capita GNP as of 2004 stood at USD 14, 462 which represents a total governmental tax income not currently exceeding 20% to provide for social welfare programs and national pension benefits of which many recipients total incomes often provide lower than actual living costs (Kim, J.S., 2007). In addition, citizens requiring social assistance have increased four fold since 1995 of which the majority are elderly recipients who remain at home representing 26% of national social support and 29% of total rural clients in a ratio which represents 2.7% of the total Korean population and a rate approximately ten times higher than comparative Japanese statistics supplemented by a ratio of total elderly approaching 8.4% living in below subsistence poverty. Concurrently such increases in aging and elderly pension disbursements cause concern that the National Pension will go bankrupt much sooner than a previously anticipated date of destruction as of 2050. Concurrently 36% of the elderly are supported financially by their children and a further 69% of that total or 40% of the entire retired population already continues to earn an income from some form of work just to maintain a minimum poverty line existence. While the vast majority continues to live independently nursing care facilities have mushroomed in local terms from 18 in 1990 to 341 in 2004. Incredibly it is further noted that elderly over the age of eighty already represent income from work which accounts for 47.7% of their earnings and only 74.6% of these totals receive any form of support from their children. A final note regards the costs of securing minimum social welfare which will only be multiplied exponentially in the event of possible impending reunification outlays if Germany actually does serve as a reasonable cost benefit model for the Korean case. The dynamism of the Korean economy predicates a difficulty and uncertainty to anticipate policy changes. Therefore the possibility exists that a radical transformation of immigration policy could take place to rescue the aged and infirm from perpetual work-life cycles.
TECHNOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Question: Will cell-phone technology continue to increase in ubiquity?
Answer: Medium yes.
Predictions of miniaturization made within the last decade not only by Bill Gates but also observers of Japanese electronics research and development indicate that the next possible revolution is the epitome in terms of electronics as described by an acolyte of Educause that, “cell phones will be the Swiss Army knives of the next century”(Livingston, 2004). However there also exists a strong anti-complexity movement in many countries towards a simplification of life-style or an “un-plugging” which could derail the success of continued increases in technological ubiquity.
Q: Will design modifications functionalize mobility in education? A: Medium yes.
Termed “m-learning” new frameworks for sharing virtual data are increasingly available globally at any connection hub in space and time which the American National Science Foundation has termed, “cyberinfrastructure.” An emergent trend called “learning swarms” or the ability to distribute cooperative operations effectively through which learning participants are able to fade and disperse into routine lifestyles and then converge suddenly by prearranged synchronizations and share information on particular targets is already in practice at institutions such as MIT, Dartmouth University and American University (Alexander, 2004: 32). According to the Korean Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy online education has developed exponentially to meet current high demands among a student public who often define their sense of style and fashion through mobile technology. E-learning in its basic form grew by 10% year on year in 2006 where private and corporate sectors exceeded public demand with incremental increases of 63% in the number of companies delivering online educational services since 2005. Additional growth in employment provided 19.1% increases in workforce (Yonhap News, 2007). The majority of higher education institutions being private reflects a continued increase in internet learning which should provoke a similar emergent trend in transition to m-learning within two to three years which support cell-phones superseding a need for lap top computers especially if full-sized light projected and data sensitive keyboards and displays become commonplace (The Horizon Report, 2007: 15). However government educational funding shifts and possible increases in new competitive entrants to the higher educational market will possibly drastically reduce tuition-earnings income necessary for institutions to research and develop viable m-learning options.
Bibliography
Alexander, B. (2004) “Going Nomadic: Mobile Learning in Higher Education”, Educause Review, September/October 2004, Educause Learning Initiative, Washington, D.C., pp. 28-35. http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/erm0451.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Anonymous (2007) The Horizon Report: 2007 Edition, New Media Consortium, Educause Learning Initiative, Austin, Texas, Boulder, Colorado. http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/CSD4781.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Anonymous (2007) “S. Korean online education market expands sharply in 2006”, Yonhap News, January 10, 2007, Yonhap News Agency, Seoul, Korea http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20070110/640000000020070110113448E3.html [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Kim, J. H. (2007) “Recent Fertility Decline and Its Implication for Population Policy in Korea”, International Symposium on Social Policy in Asia, January 31, 2007, Public Economics Group, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan. http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/~kokyo/sympo-feb07/paper/KimJungho-Korean_Pop_draft1.pdf
[Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Kim, J.S. (2007) “The New Strategies of Welfare and Labour for the Ageing Society in the ROK”, International Symposium on Social Policy in Asia, January 31, 2007, Public Economics Group, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan. http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/~kokyo/sympo-feb07/paper/KIMJoseol-20070209HIT.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Kim, J.Y. (2006) "Pan-Korean Nationalism, Anti-Great Power-ism and U.S.-South Korean Relations", Policy Forum Online, 06-01A: January 4th, 2006, Nautilus Institute, San Francisco and Melbourne. http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0601Kim.html
[Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Lee, J.M. & Paik, M.H. (2005) “Sex Preferences and Fertility in South Korea during the Year of the Horse”, Demography, Volume 43, Number 2, May 2006, Population Association of America, Silver Spring, MD, pp. 269-292. http://comp.uark.edu/~jxl20/horse.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Livingston, A. (2004) “Smart Phones and Other Mobile Devices: The Swiss Army Knives of the 21st Century”, Educause Quarterly, No. 2, 2004, Educause Learning Initiative, Washington, D.C., pp. 46-52.
Park, C.A. (2005) “Is 'Hallyu' a One-Way Street?”, The Korea Times, April 21, 2005, The Korea Times Company, Seoul, Korea. http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200504/kt2005042117374410440.htm
[Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Q: Will local governments gain more freedom and autonomy? A: Medium no.
Given the tendency of Korean political reforms to coincide with financial crises such as the IMF bailouts of 1997 public pressure may help to redefine democracy but only from a central leadership role and only perhaps if voter sentiment can be kindled to perceive candidates who are serious about putting local policies in the hands of local administrations. However the current administration has proven reform minded and one of the leading candidates for next President is described as dynamic and innovative.
Q: Will the topic of chaebol reforms again become the focus of political reforms?
A: Medium yes.
The recent conviction of Hyundai Motors Chairman Chung Mong Koo portends that 2007 truly is a period of change in the relationship between family managed corporations and implies a movement towards greater transparency not only to reduce the “Korean discount” for increased FDI but also to reorient local perspectives on the terms of stakeholder interests. However the conviction is under appeal thus the rap could become a slap and could prove political intransigence.
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES
Q: Will employment retraining gain an important position in the educational sector?
A: Medium yes.
Koreans spend more per capita upon educating their children than any other OECD nation. If the choice is made for them by the employment sector Koreans will naturally need to reskill and retrain. However if this comes at the expense of their children’s competitiveness they are more likely to sacrifice their own earning potentials for those of the next generation thus the trend adequately depicts reality in some ways to suggest that is already the case. There may be evidence to suggest a growing trend in mature students’ applications to university programs. Success or failure of retraining programs may depend upon duration, location, and cost factors.
Q: Will the US economy improve?
A: Medium yes.
Current Federal Reserve Board Chairman Dr. Ben S. Bernanke has yet to perhaps prove his skills on the swizzle stick of fiscal responsibilities to a global investor audience. While currency fluctuations do not appear to rely heavily upon speculators interests the overarching market forces at present suggest that US consumers might push for alternative fuels and thus minimize production costs over the next five years in terms of global oil consumption. However continued over-reliance on short-term consumer debt could perpetuate a great bursting of the real estate markets which would be incredibly devastating. However the globe’s most prolific monetary unit, of which there may be no accurate accounting of its actual total currency in circulation is also the globe’s most pernicious net debtor of loans in its own funds and as a most ravenous consumer of capital goods (thanks to Leontieff's Principle) the US economy continues to careen through the wilds of international balances of payments repeatedly disproving the collective theories of market economics and seemingly exempt from displaying any serious fiscal reforms-minded fuss. It is possible an economic belt-tightening event could be ongoing.
CULTURAL UNCERTAINTIES
Q: Will hallyu and Korean cultural exports continue to gain ground? A: Weak yes.
Asian experts suggest that the hallyu wave is set to reduce demand due to its own success.
Recommendations include greater development of foreign partners, and a long term perspective to creating global distribution channels with the prediction that, “If not, hallyu can last no longer than five years” (Park, C.A., 2005). Due to popularity regional costs for Korean cultural products have sky-rocketed. Perhaps the next great wave will originate in Mongolia (again). It remains to be seen whether or not the cultural industry will organize its global distribution prior to a new regional fad possibly taking its place.
Q: Will Korean nationalism continue to grow? A: Medium no.
It is felt that the youth of Korea due to high unemployment rates and a growing sense of national self-determinism contribute to a new paradigm understanding of post Korean War, post Cold War status quos in which North Korea is often perceived not as an aggressor or evil enemy but a pathetic victim of the politics of imperialist powers. However possible changes in demographics, technologies, and economic uncertainties along with the view that with age experience grows and with experience thus wisdom knows these proponents of anti-Americanism, anti-free trade and anti-foreign influences will overcome possible ignorance concerning the real issues surrounding the North which is the incredible costs inherent in any reunification strategies. However a similar trend took place post-war in Imperial Japan predicated by the trade barriers of the Great Depression. Korean nationalism could perceivably grow under conditions of severe curtailment of export growth due to the possibility of renewed global trade barriers.
DEMOGRAPHIC UNCERTAINTIES
Q: Will the Korean birth rate continue to decline? A: Medium yes.
A preference for male children is a common cultural trait among East Asians and Koreans are no exception. Thus it is a significant factor in demographics which requires further influence of government and civil organizations to stimulate population policymakers. Research indicates that, “child sex determination and sex-selective abortion were available and affordable to South Korean households as early as the late 1970s before the unbalanced sex ratio became widely recognized as a social problem” (Lee & Paik, 2005:19). It also represented a peak period in abortion rates of male and female fetuses. Noticeable over the last decade are mobile vans which patrol regional rural areas emblazoned with banners and bullhorns advertising “Vietnamese virgins” or the like from developing south-east Asian nations as suitable international marriage partners. The rural Korean agricultural population has also seen some of the most rapid and present declines in locally available women for marriage to bachelor farmers or low-skilled, low income single men. Such areas also provide some of the highest rates of aging in Gangwon and Cholla Provinces for example women once locally available have relocated to the cities to take advantage of increases in more competitive rates for employment and the higher earning potentials of suitable urban males as marriage partners. International marriages have increased from 1.2 % as of 1990 to 13.6% of national totals in 2005; foreign brides have represented only 0.2% and 9.9% of those statistics (Kim, J., 2007: 12) which provokes a claim that a, “continuing decline of fertility below the replacement rate since 1983 is accompanied by…changes in …various aspects of fertility including…delay in marriage and childbearing, an increase in…childlessness and (a) movement toward…gender equity at birth” (Ibid., 2007: 24). Additional externalities claim the cost of having a child in 2005 amounted to 124% of the rate of GDP per person in Korea and that this greatest impediment to increasing birth rates locally is a concern over cost absorption. At the same time, increasing immigration rates and tax rates would mitigate the costs to raising children especially if a platform for competition will positively affect perceived rankings in global living standards which many Koreans observe in evaluating the success of an export market focus. A shift in policy could take place which might prove quite innovative and creative despite a perception that Koreans are not particularly good at either.
Q: Will the proportion of older Korean workers continue to increase?
A: Medium yes.
Per capita GNP as of 2004 stood at USD 14, 462 which represents a total governmental tax income not currently exceeding 20% to provide for social welfare programs and national pension benefits of which many recipients total incomes often provide lower than actual living costs (Kim, J.S., 2007). In addition, citizens requiring social assistance have increased four fold since 1995 of which the majority are elderly recipients who remain at home representing 26% of national social support and 29% of total rural clients in a ratio which represents 2.7% of the total Korean population and a rate approximately ten times higher than comparative Japanese statistics supplemented by a ratio of total elderly approaching 8.4% living in below subsistence poverty. Concurrently such increases in aging and elderly pension disbursements cause concern that the National Pension will go bankrupt much sooner than a previously anticipated date of destruction as of 2050. Concurrently 36% of the elderly are supported financially by their children and a further 69% of that total or 40% of the entire retired population already continues to earn an income from some form of work just to maintain a minimum poverty line existence. While the vast majority continues to live independently nursing care facilities have mushroomed in local terms from 18 in 1990 to 341 in 2004. Incredibly it is further noted that elderly over the age of eighty already represent income from work which accounts for 47.7% of their earnings and only 74.6% of these totals receive any form of support from their children. A final note regards the costs of securing minimum social welfare which will only be multiplied exponentially in the event of possible impending reunification outlays if Germany actually does serve as a reasonable cost benefit model for the Korean case. The dynamism of the Korean economy predicates a difficulty and uncertainty to anticipate policy changes. Therefore the possibility exists that a radical transformation of immigration policy could take place to rescue the aged and infirm from perpetual work-life cycles.
TECHNOLOGICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Question: Will cell-phone technology continue to increase in ubiquity?
Answer: Medium yes.
Predictions of miniaturization made within the last decade not only by Bill Gates but also observers of Japanese electronics research and development indicate that the next possible revolution is the epitome in terms of electronics as described by an acolyte of Educause that, “cell phones will be the Swiss Army knives of the next century”(Livingston, 2004). However there also exists a strong anti-complexity movement in many countries towards a simplification of life-style or an “un-plugging” which could derail the success of continued increases in technological ubiquity.
Q: Will design modifications functionalize mobility in education? A: Medium yes.
Termed “m-learning” new frameworks for sharing virtual data are increasingly available globally at any connection hub in space and time which the American National Science Foundation has termed, “cyberinfrastructure.” An emergent trend called “learning swarms” or the ability to distribute cooperative operations effectively through which learning participants are able to fade and disperse into routine lifestyles and then converge suddenly by prearranged synchronizations and share information on particular targets is already in practice at institutions such as MIT, Dartmouth University and American University (Alexander, 2004: 32). According to the Korean Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy online education has developed exponentially to meet current high demands among a student public who often define their sense of style and fashion through mobile technology. E-learning in its basic form grew by 10% year on year in 2006 where private and corporate sectors exceeded public demand with incremental increases of 63% in the number of companies delivering online educational services since 2005. Additional growth in employment provided 19.1% increases in workforce (Yonhap News, 2007). The majority of higher education institutions being private reflects a continued increase in internet learning which should provoke a similar emergent trend in transition to m-learning within two to three years which support cell-phones superseding a need for lap top computers especially if full-sized light projected and data sensitive keyboards and displays become commonplace (The Horizon Report, 2007: 15). However government educational funding shifts and possible increases in new competitive entrants to the higher educational market will possibly drastically reduce tuition-earnings income necessary for institutions to research and develop viable m-learning options.
Bibliography
Alexander, B. (2004) “Going Nomadic: Mobile Learning in Higher Education”, Educause Review, September/October 2004, Educause Learning Initiative, Washington, D.C., pp. 28-35. http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/erm0451.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Anonymous (2007) The Horizon Report: 2007 Edition, New Media Consortium, Educause Learning Initiative, Austin, Texas, Boulder, Colorado. http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/CSD4781.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Anonymous (2007) “S. Korean online education market expands sharply in 2006”, Yonhap News, January 10, 2007, Yonhap News Agency, Seoul, Korea http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20070110/640000000020070110113448E3.html [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Kim, J. H. (2007) “Recent Fertility Decline and Its Implication for Population Policy in Korea”, International Symposium on Social Policy in Asia, January 31, 2007, Public Economics Group, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan. http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/~kokyo/sympo-feb07/paper/KimJungho-Korean_Pop_draft1.pdf
[Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Kim, J.S. (2007) “The New Strategies of Welfare and Labour for the Ageing Society in the ROK”, International Symposium on Social Policy in Asia, January 31, 2007, Public Economics Group, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan. http://www.econ.hit-u.ac.jp/~kokyo/sympo-feb07/paper/KIMJoseol-20070209HIT.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Kim, J.Y. (2006) "Pan-Korean Nationalism, Anti-Great Power-ism and U.S.-South Korean Relations", Policy Forum Online, 06-01A: January 4th, 2006, Nautilus Institute, San Francisco and Melbourne. http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0601Kim.html
[Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Lee, J.M. & Paik, M.H. (2005) “Sex Preferences and Fertility in South Korea during the Year of the Horse”, Demography, Volume 43, Number 2, May 2006, Population Association of America, Silver Spring, MD, pp. 269-292. http://comp.uark.edu/~jxl20/horse.pdf [Accessed: February 26, 2007]
Livingston, A. (2004) “Smart Phones and Other Mobile Devices: The Swiss Army Knives of the 21st Century”, Educause Quarterly, No. 2, 2004, Educause Learning Initiative, Washington, D.C., pp. 46-52.
Park, C.A. (2005) “Is 'Hallyu' a One-Way Street?”, The Korea Times, April 21, 2005, The Korea Times Company, Seoul, Korea. http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200504/kt2005042117374410440.htm
[Accessed: February 26, 2007]
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