Industry Scenarios: Korean Higher Education Sector

Industry Scenarios: Korean Higher Education Sector

Uncertainty 1: Will design modifications functionalize mobility in education?
Uncertainty 2: Will the Korean birth rate continue to decline?

Outcome W: Mobility in education increases
Outcome X: Mobility in education does not increase
Outcome Y: Korean birth rate declines
Outcome Z: Korean birth rate increases

Scenario A: (W x Y) Nomads Anonymous provides ubiquitous learning options with fewer students thus lower tuitions-based profits, smaller class sizes create difficult to foster collaborative environment which has too few consumers to justify new m-learning products development in test market. Most regional campuses close as online portals and virtual learning become only way to educate profitably but not at a cutting edge global leadership position. Entire labour and support industries wiped out. Artificial intelligence often only classmate.

Scenario B: (X x Y) The Empty Nest grips regional universities and colleges first as enrollments dry up, mass closures and mergers ensue. Gaping maw in educational options causes regulatory changes as foreign online learning agents take over the local market eventually dominating the sector. Aging workforce demands better retraining programs and research to increase robotics to maintain minimum standard of living for workers in excess of 85 age range with tuitions based funding unavailable. Local employment options reduced to call centers; scores of PhDs become rag pickers.

Scenario C: (W x Z) Digital Guinea Pigs as educational sector becomes incubator for the global m-learning environment. Fast innovation cycles and potential for market research expands m-learning dramatically along with joint-ventures, burgeoning FDI and business cross-over applications turns Korea into regional technological hub of north-east Asia. Profits from enrollments tuition, research, and development put universities in a highly sustainable creative growth market drawing local and foreign students alike. Korean universities begin taking over entire Chinese market.
Scenario D: (X x Z)Slow Boat to China as Korea lags further and further behind m-learning innovations students remain interested in SMS texts and online role playing games geared for learning outside of class. Innovation and creativity wither on the launch pad as regional competitors China and Japan surge ahead in ubiquitous learning eventually drawing Korean students out of local universities and directly to offshore campus programs where their learning and competitiveness are better rewarded elsewhere as increasingly they become permanent immigrants for export. Korea reverts to hermit kingdom status with brain drain.