Scenario A (Nomads Anonymous):
Nomads Anonymous provides ubiquitous learning options with fewer students thus lower tuitions-based profits, smaller class sizes create difficult to foster collaborative environment which has too few consumers to justify new m-learning products development in test market. Most regional campuses close as online portals and virtual learning become only way to educate profitably but not at a cutting edge global leadership position. Entire labour and support industries wiped out. Artificial intelligence often represents only classmate in virtual learning environment.
KSFs for Scenario A:
Ability to test, market and support technical advances in m-learning beyond current scope of online learning to include new cell-phone technology.
This will be particularly difficult necessitating dynamic increases in cross-disciplinary and intra-institutional collaborative research similar to the Educause Project in the USA becoming a focus of higher education research in Korea. Falling birth rates are already provoking several colleges and universities to increase scholarships funding but similar research focus increases are also necessary. Unless the ratio of research to tuition-based income can be increased such advances will be difficult to achieve. President of The Population Research Institute, Joseph D'Agostino questions, “How do you sustain a society where more and more people are past retirement age and fewer and fewer people are of working age?” (Groening, 2007). While projected applications relevant to cell-phone educational ubiquity currently stand at three to five years in the USA such changes may take longer in Korea due to a climate of uncertainty and estimates that with 27% fewer 18 year olds as of 2006 than 20 years ago enrollments fell at 20% of universities and 95% of junior colleges as of 2005 with nearly one third of all colleges expected to close within the next three years (Brender, 2006).
Capability to source and supply savvy educators able to deliver courses through new and advancing technological methods outside of traditional classroom delivery.
While the focus of m-learning appears to first engage learning swarms techniques other new methods will appear which challenge generations of instructors unfamiliar with new educational delivery formats which will necessitate increases in retraining and reskilling particularly of educators. Mergers and realignments will provide many educators willing to retrain but at the same time undermine efforts to introduce new m-learning tools for possible lack of employment options. As m-learning will require fewer bricks and mortar assets anyway such educators might often be working from home thus reducing the costs of delivery which could prove competitive to industry leaders particularly in reallocation of operating resources to further advancing new non-traditional learning paradigms. As of 2005 the national legislature apparently endowed over USD 2 billion to a seven year training program called “Brain Korea 21” intended to meet technology development needs (Brender, 2006).
Adapting foreign technology for local student consumers ahead of and in advance of international competitors to secure student market basis.
The wide influx of global media based translation has allowed entire information networks such as cable TV to inundate local consumption patterns along with global import of associated advertised products and services. There is no reason to believe that access and usage of m-learning and virtual learning environments will not be a similar diversion from national education programs. Local competitors will have to contend with increasing rates of educational change as advances in technology originating from other markets race to supply a locally adjusted product or service. As a result some success can be measured in terms of increasing international student enrollments which provides lead time for marketing m-learning options in similar foreign markets in future. There were 22,600 foreigners enrolled in South Korean universities as of 2006 showing an increase over five times the figures of 2000 of which nearly 65% are Chinese students with a concurrent doubling in the numbers of foreign professors yet far behind OECD averages of foreign student populations at 6.4% compared to Korea’s 0.2% (Kang, 2006). To counter educational services sales locally by global providers such rates should be increased dramatically.
Able to provide consumer driven learning programs matching target markets of falling first entry student enrollment and increases in mature worker retraining and reskilling.
The opportunities for retraining and reskilling of local mature workers will increase dramatically and as a result perhaps offset the dropping average entry student enrollments which will be beneficial in terms of local market profiling, target consumer tailoring and local business partnerships to provide necessary education to fulfill a need for more technologically competent workforces. Such provisions of new mature students entry may be more accessible through government regulatory proposals which include the abolishment of national universities exam entrance requirements which would place more emphasis on interviews rather than test scores (Brender, 2006). However aside from increases in online learning it does not appear yet evident to planners and decision-makers that a revolutionary scale of mature student retraining is indeed necessary and could perhaps reveal a highly lucrative and mitigating enterprise in terms of reducing costs and needs for government funded research which might be better spent subsidizing mature student enrollments to determine competitive advancement of m-learning programs at local institutional providers already being readied to become less government influenced and more corporate profits minded.
Core Competencies for Scenario A:
Educational innovation and learning programs cycled continuously with new product updates similar to current new cell-phone features and sales cycles which increasingly become shorter over time.
If nanotechnology in any way effects the development of m-learning techniques then Korea may be taking a long-term scenarios process already as reports indicate The South Korean Ministry of Science and Technology aims to take third place following The United States and Japan to develop incubators and research centres with the aim of standardization of technologies in a ten year plan leading to 2015 (Asia Pulse, 2005).
Manage brand among hundreds of competitors to consistently remain in awareness as frequency or reach possibly requires higher bursting and flighting cycles to a busier client.
Fast virtual and online service system to reach the customer sooner than the competition.
Continuous updates and revamp of technology service to ensure first provider entry of new features in educational software and virtual m-learning programs to match new capabilities in cell-phone or u-business applications.
Ability to transnationalize services to capture foreign competitors markets in particular north-east Asia.
Scenario C (Digital Guinea Pigs):
Digital Guinea Pigs as educational sector becomes incubator for the global m-learning environment. Fast innovation cycles and potential for market research expands m-learning dramatically along with joint-ventures, burgeoning FDI and business cross-over applications turns Korea into regional technological hub of north-east Asia. Profits from enrollments tuition, research, and development put universities in a highly sustainable creative growth market drawing local and foreign students alike. Korean universities begin taking over entire Chinese market.
KSFs for Scenario C:
Ability to develop and research Korean learning programs most effective for Korean learners and perhaps out of local online gaming research.
Consumption of online gaming at present is a successful first product entry which has taken advantage of current youth culture interests and comfort with technology. Harnessing current consumer openness will be useful for developing suitable educational m-learning tools to match their general competencies in the virtual world. However aspects of production, usage, and application of knowledge are considered lower than in for example The Netherlands with similar rates of digitalization and internet connectivity (Park, Heung & Leydesdorff, 2005: 3). In addition weakness is apparent through measurement of triple helix models to examine university, industry and government linkages. This further indicates that a collapse in the dot.com industry heavily affected the synergies locally and negatively influenced integration and rates of government and university coauthored research in Korea which has also not increased as quickly in comparison. Finally also evident in patent records is a Korean overlap between inventor and assignee versus greater co-inventors and co-assignees in The Netherlands. This perhaps indicates the difficulties in transferring strength in one sector such as online gaming to perhaps more lucrative educational m-learning programs with similar integrative requirements.
Capability to synergize business links between local educational, business and venture capital stakeholders to grow and incubate globalized virtual learning environments.
The advancement of Korean online gaming to global markets only emphasizes the opportunities available to conducting a similar local services platform of planning, doing, checking, and acting to experimentally develop similar m-learning tools which may only enhance the current environment of online virtual world gaming which is proving innovative, globally competitive and transferable across cultures and consumer groups. To some extent the local experience has been moderately successful especially in terms of developing universities and online degree programs such as Open Cyber University, Sookmyung Cyber Education Center, Seoul National University’s virtual programs and the Open Cyber University (Jung, 2002).
Real classroom environment easily maintained to fashion grandfathering of programming software and technology to penetrate foreign but less technologically reliant educational markets.
This would be the most essential benefit of easily monitoring and controlling the rate of adaptations and mix of traditional versus m-learning or virtual learning to provide a well-spring of long-term research and planning within which scenarios data might be more easily evaluated and by which lead time may be maximized to include a series of upgrade options which layer the technological advances with perhaps a more transitional learning curve which could prove more highly saleable locally and internationally as gradual change is often more preferable than rapid in terms of consumer acceptance and providing the production cycles necessary to maximize earnings and ROE. Several virtual learning programs exist but foreshadow similar start-up and development issues for m-learning as, “policymakers and educators in South Korea continue to grapple with issues of quality management, capacity building, cost-savings, open access, and the appropriateness of the instructional model for adult learners” (Tinio, 2003:14).
Vibrant experimental learning centers with diverse methods matching the diversity of learning styles accessible to all age ranges and inventories.
This aspect would ensure that the innovations and creativity of local educational consumers played a large role in developing a transparent and easily transferable service management system which incorporates best practices systematically and includes in depth consultations with appropriate market segments, service concepts, service delivery systems, personnel, clients, and appropriate refining of technological and service supports which positively impact brand images as well as a superior set of principles which embody an appropriate corporate culture and philosophy (Normann, 1984:21-22).
Core Competencies for Scenario C:
First entrant advantages
Developed in terms of patentee rights and competitive product or service positioning in terms of viable global m-learning technology would appear possible to achieve particularly if government, business and universities linkages can be strengthened in particular by increasing research cooperation and patentee co-invention and co-assignment. However as aspiration is for third place it might prove difficult to inspire a lead position in the market. However with increasing birth rates all things would be easier in particular tax base, enrollment gains, and more easily endowed research programs due to a larger consumer market.
Customer loyalty programs growing through record of lead innovator position in m-learning developments and successful results in job placement and employment or redeployment to new work sectors for returning mature students.
Obviously this would need to provide unquestionable results in terms of success of m-learning currently difficult to assess due to previously mentioned areas of weakness including ability to construct and deliver appropriate learning content indicates possible inability to observe the opportunities inherent in developing such competencies. However mitigated by the fact that new student entrants would not be in short supply it would offer more lead time and research opportunities to design and deliver m-learning adult education. Furthermore the customers themselves would probably present higher levels of learning motivation and consequently garner greater success for their efforts as well as be able to maintain either full-time or as is increasingly seen flexiblized working environments which would make reskilling all the more convenient with similar time/budget programs.
Deployment of new m-learning options programs and services to sell to the competition nationally and internationally which will require excellent cross-functional and cross-border linkages in global environment to capture markets (for example become the Microsoft of m-learning environment).
This would calculate that as soon as a viable m-learning platform is available it may follow the pattern of prolific growth in technologies such as personal computers, laptops and internet/wireless access to information and could prove results such as current military learning programs being released which stimulate innovations and reorientations of product to consumer educational markets. Thus the first five to ten years would appear crucial time frames within which to enter the service development in m-learning. Following this early period market leader candidates would perhaps come to quickly dominate with one platform or another absorbing competitors and amassing large knowledge base and research assets from patentee holding rights and customer loyalty programs. For example, Microsoft could easily become the next Encyclopedia Britannica without dynamic scenarios planning.
Robust KSFs and CCs:
There appear seemingly more cross-overs between these two scenarios than were initially anticipated. Evidence suggests that the contraction of birth-rates not only specifies but increases the level of urgency concerning evolution of learning technology which up to this point has been evolving with little centralized standardization either through university, government and private linkages or considering the impacts upon which the scale of efforts must increase to account for appropriate adult learning programs to replace lost revenue. In the instance of an increasing birth rate the emphasis appears to offer more opportunities for progressive development thus more lead time to plan and prepare for similar changes over a shorter time frame. In addition increasing birth rate mitigates many of the actual adult learning needs if not by adding perhaps a decade of actual retirement age to projected workforce.
Necessarily robust are research and development which not only increases linkages between stakeholders but also maximizes productivity in an already highly digitized environment. The necessary steps through which educators must adapt are also quite robust. It would appear that some advantages to a falling birth rate include reallocation of resources from physical assets to technology development. At the same time a secure enrollment future would allow institutions the lead time to better test and market their products especially if the goals are to provide the third most robust nanotechnologies in the world such aims might also require three times the efforts to streamline and modernize the concept of higher learning in the Korean context.
How many of the above KSFs and CCs does my organization possess or lack?
Daejin University has little ability to test, market or research new m-learning technologies at present however a new Techno Park to incubate local projects is currently under development. Educators are at the moment providing at least 25% of courses through online learning however this might not be standard across departments and highlights a weakness of vision which could require greater attention in future. It will be difficult to train educators in m-learning techniques without having some solid programs in place which test the methodology. At present it appears the university has few mature students however its capacities are to some extent limited by governmental regulations which may change in future. The university does not appear to be adapting foreign technologies for use locally at this time. Most learning programs appear quite Korean in nature. The university has received awards for its customer service orientation however it has yet to develop a large pool of foreign students. Given its provincial location on the suburbs or Seoul it is difficult to source local business linkages however the Techno Park will apparently be co-sponsored with Samsung and Kia among other chaebol units. Daejin University would probably reveal technological competencies above the national average however perhaps below the top ten universities mostly located in Seoul. Experimental learning is not unfamiliar to Koreans. However the higher education sector is often critically described as not providing work skills competent employees by local businesses often proceeding to spend additional time and money to fully train new hires. This claim would not be made against Daejin University particularly but the entire higher educations sector generally with few exceptions.
How might my organization acquire the KSFs and CCs that it currently lacks?
Hopefully the university strategic planning group is able to devise scenarios similar to those described here which attempt to anticipate the outcomes of inter-related uncertainties of higher development of ubiquitous learning and m-learning technologies. These new techniques will perhaps revolutionize the traditional learning environment whether the birth rate rises or falls. The essential concentration of speed or rate of change whether it is market driven or whether it is planned development will determine the successful institutions existing through the next five years.
The best methods by which to develop great fluency in these KSFs and CCs would include better coordination with government and business to secure cooperative research and an awareness of thee opportunities required not only to develop skills in m-learning but to acquire and maintain not only the next generation of digitized students but also past generations of mature learners. The urgency with which the university itself is able to relinquish traditional learning technologies, mindsets and embrace the interconnectedness and new realities of globalized and cutting edge learning techniques will ensure a continued customer base and successful achievements of future graduates which should foster greater loyalty and student motivations. It is a difficult task to which Koreans have often challenged and surprised not only themselves but also their competitors.
Bibliography
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