Key Oil Exporters Can Turn Into Importers in 10 Years: Report

Key Oil Exporters Can Turn Into Importers in 10 Years: Report
(AFP)

Some of the leading oil-exporting countries may start importing oil 10 years from now in order to satisfy the needs of their own booming economies, The New York Times reported on its website late Saturday.

Citing experts and industry projection, the newspaper said this change of roles had already occurred in Indonesia, while Mexico could start importing oil within five years.

According to the paper, these two countries could be followed later by Iran, which is currently the world’s fourth-largest crude exporter.

"It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years," the report quotes Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil analyst at Rice University, as saying.

A recent report by CIBC World Markets indicated that increasing oil consumption in Russia, Mexico and in several members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would reduce crude exports by as much as 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade, or about three percent of global oil demand, according to The Times.

The paper recalls that a 2002 labor strike in Venezuela reduced global oil production by about that much, but the net result was a 26-percent increase in oil prices.

The trend, experts say, will most likely result in market shifts, in which unconventional sources like Canadian tar sands will gain in importance, especially for the United States, The Times pointed out.

Political pressure to open areas now closed to oil production is also likely to increase, the paper noted.