Sunday, February 25, 2007

An Analysis of Selected Trends in Contemporary South Korea

An Analysis of Selected Trends in Contemporary South Korea
POLITICAL TRENDS: A first trend may be identified in contemporary democratic South Korea with declining voter turnouts which have fallen from 68% in 1995 in the outset of popular democracy to 51% as of 2006 (Park, 2006: 16) and reflects a stagnation in the progress of local democratic governance. A debate concerning the opportunities for popular politics with greater inequities versus greater pluralism and widely dispersed equalities comprises several root causes which include centralized or national constraints on local relations, a nationalization of local politics, institutions and practices which provide most power and decision making to mayors alone, followed by economic and social groups which are considered increasingly involved while at the same time atomized rather than active and passive rather than particular. Popularist belief systems are also considered largely marginalized, while community power structures and local or civic empowerment or involvement remains in the hands of centralized national authority (Park, C.M., 2006). Local government is also described as, “substantially limited” in function (Ibid, 2006: 12) and, “not free to make decisions on local needs and priorities” (Ibid, 2006: 13).

A second trend occurring at the national level reflects an increasing intolerance for corrupt corporate governance proceedings at the Department of Public Prosecutors and the Office of the President often questionably supported by a marginally active Korean voting public. The administrations of Kim Dae Jung and Roh Mu Hyun are considered to have affected increasing regulatory oversight and legislating limitations upon BOD and CEO controls due to increasing pressures from the IMF and proponents of FDI (Bramble and Ollett, 2004: 15). Political reforms have grown more antagonized and weakened at the same time as the perceived benefits to social partnership, dialogue and cooperation among government, industry and unionized employees has been nullified through increased corporatism. Social partnership building necessary to support regulatory reforms are evidenced by recent scandals concerning Hyundai Motors and Samsung Electronics where trade unions are seen to have abandoned the topic of chaebol reforms (Baccaro & Lim, 2006: 15) while prosecutors are considered to be revealing questionable effectiveness (Kim, 1998: 36-42 in Costello, 2006) .

ECONOMIC TRENDS: A first trend is in employment where service industries are seen to be rising to 76% of workers as of 2010 from a rate of 72.8 % as of 2004 (Lee, Y.H., 2004: 16) with managers, technical staff and professional categories increasing while semi and low skilled labourers percentages are falling. In addition nearly half the working population is employed in irregular or short term positions, be they temporary or daily contracts which continue to grow implicating not only continued educational programs for youth but necessarily increased retraining programs for aging or mature workers. Further globalization is projected to require more workers with, “analytical, communication and collaboration skills” than currently available (Ibid, 2004: 19). Also a polarization of jobs available in the top 30% and bottom 30% pay ranges has seen a continued reduction in middle income positions which may be a future impediment to continued economic growth. Youth unemployment in itself is also seen to be double the average OECD members at 7.9% as of 2004.

A second trend reveals that interest rates and currency exchange rates with the US dollar will continue to be effected by global considerations such as the price of oil which has affected a downturn in industrial output since the end of 2006 decelerating exports due to weak US demands however supporting continued export trade volumes increases with Europe (Chan, 2007). This trend is considered difficult to determine due to persistent variability however Korea’s policy is described as “independent or free floating” with little interventionist practices according to IMF classifications and there appears little evidence to suggest indirect influences (Frankel, 2003; Bubula & Otker-Robe, 2002 in Willet & Kim, 2006: 6 & 7).

CULTURAL TRENDS: A first trend is the increasing importance of cultural export particularly in intra-regional cultural exchange known as the "Korean wave" or hallyu which is impacting upon inter-Asian media consumption patterns and Koreans perception of their own culture from an increasingly globalized perspective. This has provoked Chinese consumers to associate Korea and Korean products with fashion and style (Onishi, 2006). Revenues from hallyu products such as TV mini-series, soap operas, musical performers and associated tourism has doubled over a period of three years from 2002 to 2005 also including online gaming global usage all with a total increase from USD 500 million to over a billion in total revenue (Ramesh, 2005: 1). This consumption of Korean cultural commodities has, “increased visibly” (Lee, T., 2005 in Yin & Liew, 2005: 214) and has made Korea, “one of the hottest new travel destinations for hallyu consumers” in Singapore, China and Japan (Yin & Liew, 2005: 217). Research indicates that this cultural development perhaps “makes people like Korea more” and provides alternatives to news media reports and images highlighting student or union protests (Park, 2004: 288).

While the relationship with North Korea is considered as a serious political concern globally it represents a form of cultural stalemate and is thus necessarily excluded from detailed political analysis under consideration as a cultural trend. However contemporary South Korean society tends to focus on the future of Korean culture rather than the North. A brief digression into the topic reveals that there are, “a confluence of trends…that the U.S.-ROK alliance is slowly but steadily approaching a moment of change likely to occur in the next South Korean administration” which remains as useful a summation of the whirlpool of uncertainty on the topic of North-South relations at present (Cha, 2002:105). A survey in 2000 revealed that Koreans have strong attachments to other Korean communities including the North which reinforces that a possible trend towards ethnic nationalism is taking place (Shin, 2006). This difficult to substantiate movement carries strong weight as it has expropriated the terms of globalization through growing efforts to maintain and preserve national culture and heritage. While this in itself is perhaps beneficial the possible racist overtones in particular of note to migrant and itinerant labour in the country is seen as a suitable response to the perceived growing threat of US influence increasing in terms of possible reunification (Ibid, 2006:132).

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: A first trend is the declining birth rate found to be one of the lowest in the world at an average of 1.1 children per woman as of 2006 according to the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) (The Korea Times, 2006). Local initiatives to increase the rate of births include parental tax breaks, benefits in the area of social insurance and childcare subsidies. However a United Nations Population Division report in 2000 concluded that the only viable solutions included drastically increasing immigration rates beyond past levels with the dire warning that, "projected population decline and population ageing will have profound and far-reaching consequences, forcing governments to reassess many established economic, social and political policies and programmes, including those relating to international migration." (UN Population Division, 2000 in Wickramasekera, 2000:14). The report also definitively states that international migration is the only option which will effectively reduce declines in the short to mid term to maintain minimum support ratios.

A second trend directly linked to the first is a growing proportion of older workers in the nation which reveals that the percentage of elderly in the population was 9.1% in 2005 increasing to 10.9% by 2010 and to 37.3% by 2050 (Gey, 2006). This trend implicates worker retirement ages and it is suggested prior to 2050 the retirement age should be raised to 85 to mitigate increases in life expectancy which suggest that workers within the next two decades will need to work until the age of 75 and increase senior work support programs due to pension and traditional support services collapse (Staines, 2006).

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS: A first trend is the increasing importance of cellular phone technology. Korea along with Japan represents the highest rate of cellular phone usage in the world as there were 37.4 million users locally in Korea as of 2005 which represent a market penetration of 76.7 percent (Shim, J.P., 2005:8). These statistics are expected to increase further as satellite digital multimedia broadcasting (DMB) came online in 2005 at SK Telecom which is Korea’s largest provider (Koreas IT Times, 2005). Ubiquitous computing or “u-commerce” which integrates cell phones with other electronic devices, home appliances and internet media is expected to grow exponentially and estimated to contribute over 15 billion dollars in Korean export earnings as of 2008 (Kim, D.H., 2003). A derivative termed “u-business” includes dynamic growth in financial services applications in the nation which provides evidence to suggest that customer transactions and trust factors are rising due to increases in context-based marketing, user control over transactions, responsiveness of businesses to enquiries, increasing connectedness of users, increasing ubiquitous interconnectivities, and a trend towards re-contextualizing the business services marketplace (Lee, T.M., 2005: 176). Researchers observing this phenomena note that usage limitations include small sized screens, performance restrictions, a lack of truly mobile learning programs and a need for design alternatives to functionalize mobility in education (Lee, Yamada, Shimizu, Shinohara, & Hada, 2005).

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