Sunday, September 06, 2009

Regarding Nova Scotia Week in Scotland 2009

Hi there Champions and Doers/Dreamers,

I would love to see the actual deliverables on export trade growth results in your Scotland Trade Mission 2009. As listed at the Scottish Government's website GDP rates are down nearly five percent since 2000 which can be interpreted as five times less growth over nearly a decade. In addition the UK is described as one of the lowest import growth nations according to OECD right next to Canada hovering on the point of import stagnation.

How many of your possible agreements have already been made prior to the junket?

Nova Scotia's growth rates over twenty years are impressive and," increased from $3.8 billion in 1981 to $15.7 billion in 2008 (CAGR = 5.4%) In 2008, total exports increased 8.2% over 2007" in NS Trade Finance 2008 however EDC predicts negative growth and a 2009 cancelling of all 2008 growth figures in exports. Focus on seafood products would indicate these are ripe for export marketing in countries listed below.

The Economist suggests that your best bets for matching interest in exportable products to high import growth rates might rely on building relationships with current GDP global growth leaders. These are: Qatar, Malawi, Angola, Ethiopia, China, Congo, Djibouti, Azerbaijan, Tanzania and Gambia. It would be tough love and hard to find many kilts in these regions.

According to the OECD the best bets for increasing Nova Scotia exports might be leading trade missions to: China, India, Slovak Republic, Czech Republic and Poland in that order of relative annual growth in imports. These rates of growth would be driven by increases in consumer demands and growing middle class disposable incomes - something Scotland and Nova Scotia both lack (OECD, page 76).

These nations might also represent reasonable immigration targeted campaigns to Nova Scotia on the micro-regional level in the interests of establishing new broker and export/import trade agents in your region. I feel building such non-Scottish ancestral relationships could benefit the region with such added cultural and linguistic diversity at small business, research, academic and trans-border educational project levels. To internationalise your business senses (and export growth target markets) I suspect you need to internationalise your population to attract future interest from such nations.

In terms of comparative or relative risk assessments in directing your efforts to building beach-heads and new business relationships in culturally diverse nations such as those listed above please refer to the Global Corruption Barometer 2009. Nova Scotians and Canadians are by nature risk-averse. Your Scotland Trade Mission 2009 indicates a possible aversion to really making new waves and generating global trade exports based on import growth nations eager to develop mutually profitable new market relationships.

I am sure you are fully committed to your Scotland Junket (which is what it looks like to me) and I am sure you have your reasons. However targeting your export markets should rely on some great form of economic rationale other than emotional or traditional affiliations. These will not generate real export growth in my humble opinion.

Going out and hunting where the business is actually booming will sharpen your export growth rates.

Sometimes the best things in life are free including reasonable (and educated) advice.

All the best,

Daniel Costello
Assistant Professor of International Trade and Management
Daejin University, Korea (Never heard of it? A couple of articles.)

Local businesspeople look to India

For Canada-China trade, opportunities abound

Canadians have not studied the Daejin University model of overseas branch campus development

Competitive Analysis of Daejin University

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